March 24, 2003
Contact: Kathy
Deboer, Vice President
WestGroup Research
(602) 707-0050 Office Phone
(602) 707-0055 Office Fax
kathy@westgroupresearch.com
Arizonans Expect War to Last Four Months; President Bush Favorability Drops; War Protests Hurting America.
Arizonans seem less optimistic about a quick, positive outcome, and more uncertain about the overall impact of the war.
Favorable ratings for President Bush deteriorated as war news became less positive, falling from 79% the day "Shock and Awe" began, to 65% after news of POWs and casualties in Iraq.
Similarly, as the news became less positive, respondents were less likely
to feel military force was justified, less likely to support the coalition
using military action, and less likely to rate successful operations favorably.
The downward trend was generally a shift from positive ratings toward
"don't know" - indicating increased uncertainty.
|
|
Day 1
3/21 n=72 |
Day2 3/22 n=78 |
Day 4
3/24 n=228 |
|
| Favorable ratings of President Bush (4 or 5) |
69%
|
79%
|
72%
|
65%
|
| President Bush was justified in making the decision
to use military force in Iraq. |
75%
|
82%
|
82%
|
70%
|
| Support coalition using military action to disarm Iraq. |
83%
|
89%
|
82%
|
82%
|
| Favorable ratings of success of the operation (4 or
5) |
70%
|
79%
|
78%
|
65%
|
Among respondents who are opposed to military action to disarm Iraq (45 respondents) about half (49%) said things should have been resolved differently. The next largest group of opponents (20%) said innocent people are dying. Other reasons mentioned were: no proof that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, and that it was not resolved in the United Nations.
War Protests
Have you seen or heard anything about war protests in America?
Would you say you agree or disagree with protestors?
Most respondents (68%) disagree with protestors. Agreement is higher among those who earn less than $25,000 annually (33%) and residents outside the metropolitan areas of the Valley and Tucson (36%). One in five (20%) agree with protestors and 12% had no opinion.
Would you say protestors have caused you to be more opposed to the war, more supportive, or had no effect on your opinion?
While most respondents (75%) said protests have had no effect on their opinion of the war, a high percentage (20%) said protests were making them more supportive. Apparently protests are raising the ire of some war supporters. Only 1 in 25 respondents (4%) said protests were making them more opposed. The remaining 2% had no opinion.
Would you say protestors are helping or hurting America?
The majority of respondents believe protests are hurting America (64%). Women are more likely to say this than men (71% vs. 57% of male respondents). Only 12% feel they are helping America. One in four (24%) had no opinion.
(IF HURTING AMERICA) In what ways do you think they (protestors) are hurting America?
|
n=
|
146
|
| Displaying disunity/division |
33%
|
| Not supporting troops |
27%
|
| Diverting police |
8%
|
| They don't know what they are talking about |
7%
|
| Creating bad attitudes |
6%
|
| Hurts everyone |
6%
|
| Financial burden |
3%
|
| Other |
9%
|
| Don't know |
4%
|
Note: Totals more than 100% due to some respondents mentioning more than one way.
Of the 27 respondents who said protestors are helping America, most (17 respondents) said protestors are exercising their right to freedom of speech and standing up to what they believe in. Others said the "constant flow of information and ideas" (5 respondents), or "raises awareness) (2 respondents).
Opinions of the War
How long do you think it will be before the war is ended?
On average, respondents think the war will last just under 4 months.
| n |
376
|
| Two weeks or less |
16%
|
| 3 weeks to 2 months |
31%
|
| 3 to 6 months |
10%
|
| 7 months or more |
8%
|
| Don't know |
35%
|
| Average |
3.7 months
|
Would you guess that Saddam Hussein is alive and in control of Iraq,
alive but incapacitated, or dead?
Most respondents (70%) guess that Saddam Hussein is still alive, but only 28% think he is in control of Iraq. Nearly one in ten (9%) think he is dead. Approximately one in five (21%) simply said they "don't know."
Do you think we will find evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq or not?
A majority of Valley residents (85%) think the United States will find evidence of mass destruction in Iraq. Seven percent (7%) do not thing such weapons will be found and 8% "don't know."
Do you think after the war the world will be safer or more dangerous?
More than half (56%) of Valley residents think the world will be safer after the war. Approximately one in five (22%) think it will be more dangerous. Some felt there would be no difference (13%) and 9% had no opinion.
It seems that minds are changing as we get further into the war and there
is increasing news about POWs and casualties. Respondents feel the war
will take longer than initially assumed. They are more pessimistic about
whether Saddam Hussein is in control of Iraq, success of the operation,
and whether the world will be safer after the war.
|
|
Day 1
3/21 n=72 |
Day2 3/22 n=78 |
Day 4
3/24 n=228 |
|
| How long do you think it will be before the war is ended?
(Average in months) |
3.7
|
2.4
|
3.3
|
4.2
|
| Saddam Hussein is alive and in control of Iraq |
28%
|
17%
|
22%
|
33%
|
| Support coalition using military action to disarm Iraq. |
83%
|
89%
|
82%
|
82%
|
| Favorable ratings of success of the operation (4 or
5) |
70%
|
79%
|
78%
|
65%
|
| The world will be safer after the war |
56%
|
68%
|
57%
|
52%
|
