July 18, 2001 • For Immediate Release
For Information Contact:
Chris Karis or Darin
Rogers (602) 707-0050
Arizonans Mixed in Their Reaction to Possibility of McCain Switching Parties
If John McCain were to leave the Republican party and become an Independent, it would significantly improve his standing among Democrats in Arizona and hurt the image of him held by many of the state's Republicans. These are some of the findings of a statewide poll released today by WestGroup Research of Phoenix.
Survey participants were first asked how likely they would have been to vote for McCain last fall if he had won the Republican nomination for president. Nearly two of three residents said they would definitely (34%) or probably (30%) have voted for McCain for president. Approximately one of five (19%) said they definitely would not have cast a vote for McCain in November.
Residents in higher income brackets expressed the greatest likelihood of voting for McCain. Approximately three of four of the residents polled with household incomes of $55,000 or more said they would have definitely (47%) or probably (27%) voted for McCain in the general election for president. Conversely, more than two of five participants living in homes with incomes of less than $25,000 said it was not likely that they would have voted for McCain for president (26% probably not/19% definitely not).
Republicans were most likely to say they would have been inclined to vote for McCain (47% definitely/27% probably), but nearly 3 of five of the Democrats (29% definitely/ 30% probably) who participated said they would have likely cast a vote for him too.
When residents were asked how their opinions toward McCain would be affected if he switched his party affiliation from Republican to Independent, nearly half (47%) of the overall sample said their opinion of him would not change. A slightly greater percentage of residents said their opinion of McCain would decrease (11% a little/17% a lot) than did those participants who reported their perspective on the Senator would improve (12% a lot/10% a little) should he become an independent.
More than a third of the Democrats surveyed said their opinions would improve (13% a lot/25% a little) should McCain become an Independent, but nearly half of the Republicans polled said their image of McCain would be negatively affected (16% a little/30% a lot.)
More than a third (37%) of the residents, whose opinions of McCain would be negatively affected if he became an Independent, said McCain was elected to office as a Republican and felt he should remain with the party.
The survey indicates residents would react even more intensely if McCain became a Democrat. Three of five Republicans said their opinion of McCain would decrease if he became a Democrat (15% a little/44% a lot), while two of five Democrats surveyed said their perception of him would improve (26% a lot/15% a little). The results show that the overall attitudes of Independents toward McCain would not be greatly affected if this scenario were to occur.
Each month WestGroup Research conducts WestTrack, an omnibus poll, with Arizona residents. The findings in this release are results of non-proprietary questions posed to 403 adult residents of Arizona in the June phase of the WestTrack polling. The research was designed by WestGroup analysts and conducted by WestGroup interviewers at the state-of-the-art phone bank in the firm's Phoenix office. The research was conducted from June 6 through July 2. The overall sample has a margin of error at a 95% confidence level of +5%.
A summary of the actual questions and detailed tabulation tables follows.
Question:
Arizona Senator John McCain ran against George W. Bush in several Republican
primaries last year. If Senator McCain had won the Republican nomination
for president would you have definitely, probably, probably not or definitely
not voted for him?
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Question:
Arizona Senator John McCain ran against George W. Bush in several Republican
primaries last year. If Senator McCain had won the Republican nomination
for president would you have definitely, probably, probably not or definitely
not voted for him?
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Question:
Senator McCain recently met with Democrat leaders at his home in Sedona
which has caused some speculation that Senator McCain may change his party
affiliation from Republican to Independent or Democrat. If Senator
McCain were to become a member of the Independent party would your opinion
of him improve a lot, improve a little, stay the same, decrease a little
or decrease a lot?
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Question:
Senator McCain recently met with Democrat leaders at his home in Sedona
which has caused some speculation that Senator McCain may change his party
affiliation from Republican to Independent or Democrat. If Senator
McCain were to become a member of the Independent party would your opinion
of him improve a lot, improve a little, stay the same, decrease a little
or decrease a lot?
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Question:
If Senator McCain were to become a member of the Democratic party would
your opinion of him improve a lot, improve a little, stay the same, decrease
a little or decrease a lot?
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Question:
If Senator McCain were to become a member of the Democratic party would
your opinion of him improve a lot, improve a little, stay the same, decrease
a little or decrease a lot?
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