March 25, 2003
Contact: answers@westgroupresearch.com
Arizonans Expect War to Last Four Months; President Bush Favorability Drops; War Protests Hurting America
PHOENIX – Arizonans seem less optimistic about a quick, positive outcome to the war in Iraq; more uncertain about the overall impact of the war; and favorable ratings for President George W. Bush have deteriorated as war news has become less positive. Those are some of the findings of a just-released survey of 376 adults from throughout Arizona by WestGroup Research of Phoenix. The telephone survey took place March 21-22 and 24. The overall study has a margin of error at a 95% confidence level of + 5%. President Bush’s favorability has fallen from 79% the day “Shock and Awe” began, to 65% after news of POWs and casualties in Iraq. Similarly, as the news has become less positive, Arizonans are less likely to feel military force was justified (from 82% on March 21 to 70% on March 24), less likely to support the coalition using military action (from 89% on March 21 to 82% on March 24), and less likely to rate successful operations favorably (79% on March 21 to 65% on March 24).
It seems that minds are changing as we get further into the war and there is increasing news about POWs and casualties. They are more pessimistic about the success of the operation and whether the world will be safer after the war. Respondents feel the war will take longer than the initially assumed (on average 4 months). Most respondents (70%) guess that Saddam Hussein is still alive, but only 28% think he is in control of Iraq. More than half (56%) believes the world will be safer after the war.
On the subject of war protests, most respondents (68%) disagree with protestors. Agreement is higher among those who earn less than $25,000 annually (33%) and residents outside the metropolitan areas of the Valley and Tucson (36%).
The majority of respondents believe protests are hurting America (64%). Women are more likely to say this than men (71% vs. 57% of male respondents).
Detailed Survey Results:
President Bush and the War in Iraq
Arizonans seem less optimistic about a quick, positive outcome, and more uncertain about the overall impact of the war.
Favorable ratings for President Bush deteriorated as war news became less positive, falling from 79% the day “Shock and Awe” began, to 65% after news of POWs and casualties in Iraq.
Similarly, as the news became less positive, respondents were less likely to feel military force was justified, less likely to support the coalition using military action, and less likely to rate successful operations favorably. The downward trend was generally a shift from positive ratings toward “don’t know” — indicating increased uncertainty.
| Total | Day 1 3/21 |
Day 2 3/22 |
Day 4 3/24 |
|
| n | 376 | 72 | 76 | 228 |
| Favorable ratings of President Bush (4 or 5) | 69% | 79% | 72% | 65% |
| President Bush was justified in making the decision to use military force in Iraq. | 75% | 82% | 82% | 70% |
| Support coalition using military action to disarm Iraq. | 83% | 89% | 82% | 82% |
| Favorable ratings of success of the operation (4 or 5) | 70% | 79% | 78% | 65% |
Among respondents who are opposed to military action to disarm Iraq (45 respondents) about half (49%) said things should have been resolved differently. The next largest group of opponents (20%) said innocent people are dying. Other reasons mentioned were: no proof that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, and that it was not resolved in the United Nations.
War Protests
Have you seen or heard anything about war protests in America? Would you say you agree or disagree with protestors?
Most respondents (68%) disagree with protestors. Agreement is higher among those who earn less than $25,000 annually (33%) and residents outside the metropolitan areas of the Valley and Tucson (36%).
| n | 228 |
| Disagree with protestors | 68% |
| Agree | 20% |
| No opinion | 12% |
Would you say protestors have caused you to be more opposed to the war, more supportive, or had no effect on your opinion?
While most respondents (75%) said protests have had no effect on their opinion of the war, a high percentage (20%) said protests were making them more supportive. Apparently protests are raising the ire of some war supporters. Only 1 in 25 respondents (4%) said protests were making them more opposed.
| n | 228 |
| No effect | 75% |
| More supportive | 20% |
| More opposed to the war | 4% |
| No opinion | 2% |
Would you say protestors are helping or hurting America?
The majority of respondents believe protests are hurting America (64%). Women are more likely to say this than men (71% vs. 57% of male respondents).
(IF HURTING AMERICA) In what ways do you think they (protestors) are hurting America?
| n | 146 |
| Displaying disunity/division | 33% |
| Not supporting troops | 27% |
| Diverting police | 8% |
| They don’t know what they are talking about | 7% |
| Creating bad attitudes | 6% |
| Hurts everyone | 6% |
| Financial burden | 3% |
| Other | 9% |
| Don’t know | 4% |
(IF HELPING AMERICA) In what ways to do you think they (protestors) are helping America?
Of the 27 respondents who said protestors are helping America, most (17 respondents) said protestors are exercising their right to freedom of speech and standing up to what they believe in. Others said the “constant flow of information and ideas” (5 respondents), or “raises awareness) (2 respondents).
Opinions of the War
How long do you think it will be before the war is ended?
On average, respondents think the war will last just under 4 months.
| n | 376 |
| Two weeks or less | 16% |
| 3 weeks to 2 months | 31% |
| 3 to 6 months | 10% |
| 7 months or more | 8% |
| Don’t know | 35% |
| Average | 3.7 months |
Would you guess that Saddam Hussein is alive and in control of Iraq, alive but incapacitated, or dead?
Most respondents (70%) guess that Saddam Hussein is still alive, but only 28% think he is in control of Iraq.
| n | 376 |
| Alive but incapacitated | 42% |
| Alive and in control of Iraq | 28% |
| Dead | 9% |
| Don’t know | 21% |
Do you think we will find evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq or not?
| n | 376 |
| Yes | 85% |
| No | 7% |
| Don't Know | 8% |
Do you think after the war the world will be safer or more dangerous?
| n | 376 |
| Safer | 56% |
| More dangerous | 22% |
| No difference | 13% |
| No opinion | 9% |
It seems that minds are changing as we get further into the war and there is increasing news about POWs and casualties. Respondents feel the war will take longer than initially assumed. They are more pessimistic about whether Saddam Hussein is in control of Iraq, success of the operation, and whether the world will be safer after the war.
| Total | Day 1 3/21 |
Day 2 3/22 |
Day 4 3/24 |
|
| n | 376 | 72 | 76 | 228 |
| How long do you think it will be before the war is ended? (Average in months) | 3.7 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| Saddam Hussein is alive and in control of Iraq | 28% | 17% | 22% | 33% |
| Support coalition using military action to disarm Iraq. | 83% | 89% | 82% | 82% |
| Favorable ratings of success of the operation (4 or 5) | 70% | 79% | 78% | 65% |
| The world will be safer after the war | 56% | 68% | 57% | 52% |
